Probability Misconceptions Survey Form
Help us understand how people think about probability by answering these questions. There are no right or wrong answers—please answer honestly based on your current understanding.
A fair coin is flipped 5 times and lands heads each time. What is the probability that the next flip will be tails?
*
50%
Less than 50%
More than 50%
Not sure
Which of the following best describes your belief about the likelihood of rolling a 6 on a fair six-sided die after not rolling a 6 for ten consecutive rolls?
*
The chance increases
The chance stays the same
The chance decreases
Not sure
If you toss two coins, what is the probability of getting at least one head?
*
25%
50%
75%
100%
A lottery has 1,000 tickets and only one winning ticket. If you buy 10 tickets, what is your chance of winning?
*
1%
10%
0.1%
Not sure
How strongly do you agree with the following statement? "If something hasn’t happened in a while, it’s more likely to happen soon."
*
Strongly Disagree
1
2
3
4
Strongly Agree
5
1 is Strongly Disagree, 5 is Strongly Agree
Select the option that best matches your view: "If you know the outcome of one coin toss, it affects the outcome of the next toss."
*
Agree
Disagree
Not sure
Which of the following is most likely? (Assume a fair six-sided die)
*
Rolling a 6 once in 6 rolls
Rolling a 6 once in 12 rolls
Both equally likely
Not sure
How confident are you in your understanding of basic probability concepts?
*
Not Confident
1
2
3
4
Very Confident
5
1 is Not Confident, 5 is Very Confident
For each statement, indicate whether you think it is true or false:
*
Rows
True
False
If you flip a fair coin 10 times, you are guaranteed to get 5 heads and 5 tails.
1
2
The chance of rolling a 3 on a fair die is 1 in 6.
3
4
If two events are both unlikely, they cannot happen together.
5
6
Please share any probability misconception you have encountered or believed in the past.
Submit
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